Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2026-01-12 • Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 45.9%
TBL: 54.1%
Expected Goals
PHI: 2.60
TBL: 2.97
Total Goals
Median: 4.3
Over 5.5: 36%
Over 6.5: 24%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | PHI | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.914 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.950 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | PHI 1 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-10 | PHI 2 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-24 | TBL 3 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-17 | TBL 2 - 0 PHI | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-13 | PHI 4 - 3 TBL | PHI | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:10 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:33 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 05:40 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 19:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:39 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 54.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.6 - 3.0
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