Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

PHI: 37.1%

TBL: 62.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.70

TBL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	7	0	0.46
1	TBL	9	1	0.90
2	PHI	18	0	1.48
2	TBL	17	3	1.99
3	PHI	13	1	0.83
3	TBL	11	3	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 3.0