Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 44.3%

TBL: 55.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.95

TBL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	PHI	TBL
Season SV%	0.910	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	26	21	5	80.8%	4.70	7	-0.30
TBL	Jonas Johansson	21	20	1	95.2%	2.78	1	1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	7	0	0.46
1	TBL	9	1	0.90
2	PHI	18	0	1.48
2	TBL	17	3	1.99
3	PHI	13	1	0.83
3	TBL	11	3	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown