Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 54.6%

TBL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.19

TBL: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	PIT	TBL
Season SV%	0.886	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	34	31	3	91.2%	4.70	3	1.70
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	27	2	93.1%	4.66	4	2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	1	1.19
1	TBL	15	0	0.52
2	PIT	12	1	0.87
2	TBL	16	0	1.17
3	PIT	13	0	0.91
3	TBL	13	1	0.94
4	PIT	6	1	0.92
4	TBL	1	0	0.19
5	PIT	2	1	0.77
5	TBL	3	2	1.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9