Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 59.4%

TBL: 40.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.14

TBL: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TBL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	TBL 6 - 3 PIT	TBL	TBL
2026-01-13	PIT 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	PIT
2025-12-04	TBL 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	TBL
2025-03-25	TBL 6 - 1 PIT	TBL	TBL
2025-01-12	PIT 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	1	1.19
1	TBL	15	0	0.52
2	PIT	12	1	0.87
2	TBL	16	0	1.17
3	PIT	13	0	0.91
3	TBL	13	1	0.94
4	PIT	6	1	0.92
4	TBL	1	0	0.19
5	PIT	2	1	0.77
5	TBL	3	2	1.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7