Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2026-01-13 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 56.7%
TBL: 43.3%
Expected Goals
PIT: 2.85
TBL: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 4.1
Over 5.5: 35%
Over 6.5: 25%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | PIT | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.844 | 0.922 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TBL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | TBL 6 - 3 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-13 | PIT 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | PIT |
| 2025-12-04 | TBL 3 - 4 PIT | PIT | TBL |
| 2025-03-25 | TBL 6 - 1 PIT | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-12 | PIT 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 14:13 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:44 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.8 - 2.8
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