Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2026-01-17 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 5 - 6 Montreal Canadiens (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 55.8%
MTL: 44.2%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.13
MTL: 3.45
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | OTT | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.878 | — |
| GAA | 2.95 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | OTT 5 - 6 MTL | MTL | OTT |
| 2025-12-02 | MTL 2 - 5 OTT | OTT | MTL |
| 2025-11-01 | MTL 4 - 3 OTT | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-04-11 | OTT 5 - 2 MTL | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-03-18 | MTL 6 - 3 OTT | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:50 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 03:06 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:24 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 15:31 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 04:26 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:07 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 00:42 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:41 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 15:36 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 07:55 | OTT | Goal |
| 4 | 00:33 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 5 - 6 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.1 - 3.4