Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 6 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 58.7%

MTL: 41.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.75

MTL: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	1	0.75
1	MTL	14	0	0.93
2	OTT	19	2	2.53
2	MTL	8	0	0.40
3	OTT	14	0	0.84
3	MTL	8	1	0.82
4	OTT	1	0	0.16
4	MTL	3	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 3.4