Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 6 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 71.5%

MTL: 28.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.85

MTL: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	OTT	MTL
Season SV%	0.872	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	19	13	6	68.4%	2.38	1	-3.62
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	34	29	5	85.3%	4.29	3	-0.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	OTT
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	1	0.75
1	MTL	14	0	0.93
2	OTT	19	2	2.53
2	MTL	8	0	0.40
3	OTT	14	0	0.84
3	MTL	8	1	0.82
4	OTT	1	0	0.16
4	MTL	3	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 2.5