Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 6 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 72.0%

MTL: 28.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.69

MTL: 2.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	MTL
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	OTT
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	03:06	MTL	Goal
1	17:50	MTL	Goal
2	00:42	MTL	Goal
2	03:07	OTT	Goal
2	04:26	MTL	Goal
2	15:31	OTT	Goal
2	18:24	OTT	Goal
3	07:55	OTT	Goal
3	15:36	OTT	Goal
3	16:41	OTT	Goal
4	00:33	MTL	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 2.5