Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2026-01-27 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 7 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 44.9%
BUF: 55.1%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.86
BUF: 3.10
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 44%
Over 6.5: 31%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | TOR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.873 | 0.904 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs BUF: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | BUF 3 - 2 TOR | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-27 | TOR 4 - 7 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-25 | TOR 4 - 3 BUF | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-24 | BUF 5 - 3 TOR | BUF | TOR |
| 2025-04-15 | BUF 0 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:44 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 09:29 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 10:49 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 13:16 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 18:05 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 11:17 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 18:17 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 00:16 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 11:33 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 14:59 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:16 | BUF | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 7 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1
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