Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 7 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 45.9%

BUF: 54.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.11

BUF: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	TOR	BUF
Season SV%	0.914	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	31	24	7	77.4%	3.36	3	-3.64
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	23	19	4	82.6%	3.02	4	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	7	2	0.74
1	BUF	14	1	0.91
2	TOR	10	1	0.67
2	BUF	19	0	1.13
3	TOR	16	1	1.61
3	BUF	13	2	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown