Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-27 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 7 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TOR: 40.8%

BUF: 59.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.05

BUF: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	7	2	0.74
1	BUF	14	1	0.91
2	TOR	10	1	0.67
2	BUF	19	0	1.13
3	TOR	16	1	1.61
3	BUF	13	2	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 7 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3