Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

TBL: 70.9%

TOR: 29.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.93

TOR: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	1.09
1	TOR	11	1	0.97
2	TBL	25	3	2.18
2	TOR	18	3	1.82
3	TBL	17	2	2.69
3	TOR	19	2	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9