Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-02-25 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 63.0%

TOR: 37.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.97

TOR: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	TBL	TOR
Season SV%	0.913	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	32	2	94.1%	4.09	6	2.09
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	36	32	4	88.9%	5.96	5	1.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • TBL at home vs TOR: 6-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	1.09
1	TOR	11	1	0.97
2	TBL	25	3	2.18
2	TOR	18	3	1.82
3	TBL	17	2	2.69
3	TOR	19	2	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown