Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

MTL: 63.1%

WSH: 36.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.69

WSH: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	2	1.30
1	WSH	11	2	1.03
2	MTL	17	1	1.40
2	WSH	17	3	2.13
3	MTL	10	3	1.48
3	WSH	14	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0