Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-02-28 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 66.6%

WSH: 33.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.50

WSH: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	MTL	WSH
Season SV%	0.889	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	29	27	2	93.1%	4.28	6	2.28
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	25	19	6	76.0%	4.17	6	-1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	2	1.30
1	WSH	11	2	1.03
2	MTL	17	1	1.40
2	WSH	17	3	2.13
3	MTL	10	3	1.48
3	WSH	14	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown