Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

Win Probability

TOR: 46.2%

PHI: 53.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.93

PHI: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.67
1	PHI	20	2	1.74
2	TOR	18	0	0.78
2	PHI	5	0	0.11
3	TOR	10	0	0.54
3	PHI	8	0	0.55
4	TOR	5	1	0.62
4	PHI	2	0	0.19
5	TOR	3	1	0.96
5	PHI	2	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3