Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-03-02 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 46.0%

PHI: 54.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.23

PHI: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	TOR	PHI
Season SV%	0.884	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	27	23	4	85.2%	4.32	4	0.32
PHI	Dan Vladar	34	31	3	91.2%	3.58	2	0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	PHI
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.67
1	PHI	20	2	1.74
2	TOR	18	0	0.78
2	PHI	5	0	0.11
3	TOR	10	0	0.54
3	PHI	8	0	0.55
4	TOR	5	1	0.62
4	PHI	2	0	0.19
5	TOR	3	1	0.96
5	PHI	2	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2