Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-03-04 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 50.2%

VGK: 49.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.87

VGK: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	DET	VGK
Season SV%	0.888	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.99	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	25	21	4	84.0%	3.49	4	-0.51
VGK	Adin Hill	26	23	3	88.5%	3.02	1	0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	DET 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	DET
2025-11-04	VGK 1 - 0 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-22	VGK 6 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK
2025-03-16	DET 3 - 0 VGK	DET	VGK
2024-03-09	VGK 5 - 3 DET	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	0.88
1	VGK	13	1	0.97
2	DET	14	0	0.93
2	VGK	11	2	1.06
3	DET	10	1	1.05
3	VGK	13	1	0.89
4	DET	1	0	0.15
4	VGK	4	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3