Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2026-03-05 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 6 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 58.2%
TOR: 41.8%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.01
TOR: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 4.5
Over 5.5: 37%
Over 6.5: 23%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | NYR | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.892 | 0.879 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYR at home vs TOR: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | TOR 4 - 3 NYR | TOR | NYR |
| 2026-03-05 | NYR 6 - 2 TOR | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-10-16 | TOR 2 - 1 NYR | TOR | NYR |
| 2025-03-20 | NYR 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | NYR |
| 2025-02-28 | NYR 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | TOR |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 6 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.0 - 2.7
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