Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 44.3%

PIT: 55.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.99

PIT: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs PIT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	0	1.08
1	PIT	10	0	0.40
2	VGK	6	1	0.62
2	PIT	13	0	0.97
3	VGK	10	4	2.39
3	PIT	19	0	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9