Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-03-12 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 46.9%

PIT: 53.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.10

PIT: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	VGK	PIT
Season SV%	0.888	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	26	24	2	92.3%	2.72	0	0.72
PIT	Arturs Silovs	17	11	6	64.7%	4.08	5	-1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	VGK 6 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT
2026-03-01	PIT 5 - 0 VGK	PIT	VGK
2025-03-11	PIT 3 - 2 VGK	PIT	PIT
2025-03-07	VGK 4 - 0 PIT	VGK	VGK
2024-01-20	VGK 3 - 2 PIT	VGK	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	0	1.08
1	PIT	10	0	0.40
2	VGK	6	1	0.62
2	PIT	13	0	0.97
3	VGK	10	4	2.39
3	PIT	19	0	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown