New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2026-03-17 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 New York Islanders
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 44.5%
NYI: 55.5%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.86
NYI: 3.33
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
| Stat | TOR | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.881 | 0.907 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | NYI 5 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-03-17 | TOR 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-01-03 | NYI 4 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-02 | NYI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NYI |
| 2024-12-31 | TOR 3 - 1 NYI | TOR | TOR |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 3 New York Islanders
Expected: 2.9 - 3.3
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.