Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2026-03-21 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 46.9%
TBL: 53.1%
Expected Goals
EDM: 2.84
TBL: 2.71
Total Goals
Median: 3.7
Over 5.5: 31%
Over 6.5: 20%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | EDM | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.837 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.925 | 0.942 |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | EDM 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-20 | TBL 2 - 1 EDM | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-25 | TBL 4 - 1 EDM | TBL | EDM |
| 2024-12-10 | EDM 2 - 1 TBL | EDM | EDM |
| 2023-12-14 | EDM 4 - 7 TBL | TBL | EDM |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.8 - 2.7
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