Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 51.2%

TBL: 48.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.07

TBL: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	EDM	TBL
Season SV%	0.883	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	27	22	5	81.5%	4.05	5	-0.95
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	26	2	92.9%	3.21	2	1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.52
1	TBL	16	1	0.78
2	EDM	15	1	1.21
2	TBL	15	2	1.57
3	EDM	10	1	1.49
3	TBL	14	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown