Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-03-21 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 53.3%

TBL: 46.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.15

TBL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	EDM
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.52
1	TBL	16	1	0.78
2	EDM	15	1	1.21
2	TBL	15	2	1.57
3	EDM	10	1	1.49
3	TBL	14	2	1.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9