Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-03-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

CGY: 63.7%

TBL: 36.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.23

TBL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	18	0	0.88
1	TBL	14	0	0.78
2	CGY	15	0	0.88
2	TBL	21	1	1.01
3	CGY	12	0	0.58
3	TBL	13	2	1.14
4	CGY	1	0	0.17
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9