Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Minnesota Wild

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 50.9%

MIN: 49.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.35

MIN: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	TBL	MIN
Season SV%	0.913	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	21	3	87.5%	2.42	1	-0.58
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	26	20	6	76.9%	4.88	6	-1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs MIN: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	TBL 3 - 2 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	1	0.99
1	MIN	13	0	0.82
2	TBL	15	2	1.08
2	MIN	17	1	1.24
3	TBL	13	3	2.81
3	MIN	8	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown