Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-24 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

TBL: 54.4%

MIN: 45.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.28

MIN: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	21	1	0.96
1	MIN	13	0	0.82
2	TBL	15	2	1.08
2	MIN	17	1	1.25
3	TBL	13	3	2.81
3	MIN	8	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2