Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 60.4%

PIT: 39.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.48

PIT: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	OTT	PIT
Season SV%	0.881	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	41	36	5	87.8%	6.24	4	1.24
PIT	Stuart Skinner	32	28	4	87.5%	4.44	2	0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • OTT at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	PIT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	0	1.13
1	PIT	17	0	0.74
2	OTT	11	0	0.57
2	PIT	31	1	2.13
3	OTT	14	1	1.08
3	PIT	15	0	0.99
4	OTT	7	0	0.75
4	PIT	4	1	0.49
5	OTT	3	1	0.89
5	PIT	3	2	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6