Washington Capitals at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-03-26 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 7 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 57.3%

WSH: 42.7%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.33

WSH: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	UTA	WSH
Season SV%	0.879	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.92	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	25	18	7	72.0%	3.19	3	-3.81
WSH	Logan Thompson	40	36	4	90.0%	5.97	6	1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 0% • UTA at home vs WSH: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	UTA 4 - 7 WSH	WSH	UTA
2026-03-03	WSH 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	WSH
2025-02-09	WSH 4 - 5 UTA	UTA	WSH
2024-11-18	UTA 2 - 6 WSH	WSH	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	19	3	2.27
1	WSH	11	1	0.74
2	UTA	19	0	1.22
2	WSH	13	0	0.65
3	UTA	31	3	2.47
3	WSH	14	2	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown