Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-03-28 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 47.9%

OTT: 52.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.25

OTT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

OTT

J. Reimer

Stat	TBL	OTT
Season SV%	0.913	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	26	2	92.9%	3.07	3	1.07
OTT	J. Reimer	27	23	4	85.2%	4.16	3	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs OTT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	OTT
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	0.64
1	OTT	14	2	1.35
2	TBL	22	0	1.48
2	OTT	10	0	0.87
3	TBL	15	3	2.04
3	OTT	16	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown