Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2026-03-28 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Washington Capitals (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 73.5%
WSH: 26.5%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.88
WSH: 2.13
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | VGK | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.900 | 0.891 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs WSH: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | VGK 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | VGK |
| 2026-02-27 | WSH 3 - 2 VGK | WSH | VGK |
| 2024-11-17 | VGK 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-10-15 | WSH 4 - 2 VGK | WSH | WSH |
| 2023-12-02 | VGK 4 - 1 WSH | VGK | VGK |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 73.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.9 - 2.1
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