Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 59.3%

WSH: 40.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.80

WSH: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 54%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	7	0	0.27
1	WSH	15	0	0.57
2	PIT	12	2	1.20
2	WSH	18	4	2.28
3	PIT	8	1	0.75
3	WSH	15	1	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.8 - 3.1