New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-15 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 60.9%

NYR: 39.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.76

NYR: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	NYR
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	3	1.38
1	NYR	10	0	0.68
2	TBL	16	2	1.77
2	NYR	13	1	0.93
3	TBL	21	0	1.45
3	NYR	12	3	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 2.8 - 2.8