Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-09-29 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 46.1%

MTL: 53.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.88

MTL: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

S. Bobrovsky

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	TOR	MTL
Season SV%	—	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	S. Bobrovsky	24	21	3	87.5%	3.40	4	0.40
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	26	2	92.9%	2.70	1	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs MTL: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	TOR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.82
1	MTL	15	1	0.87
2	TOR	11	0	0.58
2	MTL	12	0	0.62
3	TOR	16	1	1.30
3	MTL	12	3	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown