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Dallas Stars vs Seattle Kraken Prediction (Oct 13, 2024)

Dallas Stars vs Seattle Kraken — Oct 13, 2024

Page built: Nov 14, 2026 04:05 AM PST.

Detailed NHL game prediction for Dallas Stars vs Seattle Kraken: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff chances & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for Dallas Stars and Seattle Kraken.

Dallas Stars 55.5% Seattle Kraken 44.5%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: Dallas Stars 3.20 — Seattle Kraken 2.89 • Median total: 6.1

Advanced matchup context

Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.

Pregame form · regulation five-on-five
Per-team for minus againstDALSEA
Net attempts / 60+6.80Unavailable
Score-adjusted net attempts / 60+8.20Unavailable
Net xG / 60+0.50Unavailable
Score-adjusted net xG / 60+0.56Unavailable

DAL: last 30 eligible games · 1324 verified minutes · through 2024-10-12

SEA: recent form withheld; latest verified game is 2024-04-18.

Reading the form numbers

Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.

Where the attempts may come from

Fresh prior shot-pattern profiles are unavailable for one or both teams.

These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.

After the game

Completed-game diagnostic · positive values favor DAL.

Raw attempt differential-11.0
Neutral-score differential-6.8
Above expectation-11.7

39.6 verified 5v5 minutes; 94% attempt retention. These estimates use the game's observed score-state time and are separate from the pregame view.

What the shot count hides: findings, methods and limits →

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