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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets Prediction (Jan 29, 2026)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets — Jan 29, 2026

Page built: Oct 07, 2026 11:03 PM PDT. Forecast generation time is unavailable; dated research coverage is shown below.

Detailed NHL game prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff odds & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets.

Tampa Bay Lightning 57.9% Winnipeg Jets 42.1%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning 2.88 — Winnipeg Jets 3.07 • Median total: 6.4

Advanced matchup context

Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.

Pregame form · regulation five-on-five
Per-team for minus againstTBLWPG
Net attempts / 60+4.55-1.61
Score-adjusted net attempts / 60+6.36-1.95
Net xG / 60+0.40-0.24
Score-adjusted net xG / 60+0.48-0.26

TBL: last 30 eligible games · 1346 verified minutes · through 2026-01-26

WPG: last 30 eligible games · 1417 verified minutes · through 2026-01-27

Reading the form numbers

Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.

Where the attempts may come from

Expected share of each team's attempts
Shot categoryTBLWPG
Rebound11.4%10.2%
Close range19.6%18.0%
Long range23.4%26.6%
Other45.6%45.3%

Profiles frozen 2026-01-01; observations through 2025-12-31. A 50/50 blend of each attack's history and the opposing defense's conceded mix.

These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.

After the game

Completed-game diagnostic · positive values favor TBL.

Raw attempt differential+1.0
Neutral-score differential+4.9
Above expectation+3.2

43.2 verified 5v5 minutes; 97% attempt retention. These estimates use the game's observed score-state time and are separate from the pregame view.

What the shot count hides: findings, methods and limits →

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