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2026-27 Season Live · Updated November 15, 2026 at 05:20 AM PST

Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction (Apr 14, 2024)

Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche — Apr 14, 2024

Page built: Nov 15, 2026 05:20 AM PST.

Detailed NHL game prediction for Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff chances & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche.

Vegas Golden Knights 60.1% Colorado Avalanche 39.9%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: Vegas Golden Knights 3.49 — Colorado Avalanche 2.88 • Median total: 6.4

Advanced matchup context

Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.

Pregame form · regulation five-on-five
Per-team for minus againstVGKCOL
Net attempts / 60+0.45+5.34
Score-adjusted net attempts / 60+1.35+5.37
Net xG / 60+0.10+0.36
Score-adjusted net xG / 60+0.14+0.35

VGK: last 30 eligible games · 1341 verified minutes · through 2024-04-12

COL: last 30 eligible games · 1326 verified minutes · through 2024-04-13

Reading the form numbers

Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.

Where the attempts may come from

Expected share of each team's attempts
Shot categoryVGKCOL
Rebound10.2%9.3%
Close range17.9%19.4%
Long range25.5%24.5%
Other46.4%46.8%

Profiles frozen 2024-04-01; observations through 2024-03-31. A 50/50 blend of each attack's history and the opposing defense's conceded mix.

These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.

What the shot count hides: findings, methods and limits →

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