NHLForecasts.com

2026-27 Season Live · Updated November 15, 2026 at 05:20 AM PST

Detroit Red Wings vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction (Apr 15, 2024)

Detroit Red Wings vs Montreal Canadiens — Apr 15, 2024

Page built: Nov 15, 2026 05:20 AM PST.

Detailed NHL game prediction for Detroit Red Wings vs Montreal Canadiens: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff chances & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens.

Detroit Red Wings 50.2% Montreal Canadiens 49.8%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: Detroit Red Wings 3.16 — Montreal Canadiens 3.15 • Median total: 6.3

Advanced matchup context

Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.

Pregame form · regulation five-on-five
Per-team for minus againstDETMTL
Net attempts / 60-8.22-5.99
Score-adjusted net attempts / 60-8.67-6.01
Net xG / 60-0.42-0.43
Score-adjusted net xG / 60-0.43-0.43

DET: last 30 eligible games · 1343 verified minutes · through 2024-04-13

MTL: last 30 eligible games · 1273 verified minutes · through 2024-04-13

Reading the form numbers

Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.

Where the attempts may come from

Expected share of each team's attempts
Shot categoryDETMTL
Rebound9.3%10.0%
Close range18.2%18.7%
Long range25.5%25.2%
Other47.0%46.1%

Profiles frozen 2024-04-01; observations through 2024-03-31. A 50/50 blend of each attack's history and the opposing defense's conceded mix.

These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.

What the shot count hides: findings, methods and limits →

← Prev matchup Next matchup → Team hub: Detroit Red Wings Team hub: Montreal Canadiens Full Comparison →