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2026-27 Season Live · Updated November 15, 2026 at 05:20 AM PST

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction (Apr 23, 2024)

Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning — Apr 23, 2024

Page built: Nov 15, 2026 05:20 AM PST.

Detailed NHL game prediction for Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff chances & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term outlooks for Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning.

Florida Panthers 52.8% Tampa Bay Lightning 47.2%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: Florida Panthers 3.05 — Tampa Bay Lightning 2.88 • Median total: 5.9

Advanced matchup context

Reconstructed from earlier games. Research measures; the win probabilities above use the existing forecast model.

Pregame form · regulation five-on-five
Per-team for minus againstFLATBL
Net attempts / 60+3.64-1.22
Score-adjusted net attempts / 60+5.62-0.34
Net xG / 60+0.29-0.11
Score-adjusted net xG / 60+0.37-0.07

FLA: last 30 eligible games · 1270 verified minutes · through 2024-04-13

TBL: last 30 eligible games · 1277 verified minutes · through 2024-04-15

Reading the form numbers

Net means created minus conceded. Rates use the last 30 eligible regular games, with at least 30 verified five-on-five minutes and 80% attempt retention per game. Score adjustment removes the fitted score-state effect while retaining team strength. Shot volume and xG are adjusted separately. These form replacements have not earned a place in the win model.

Where the attempts may come from

Expected share of each team's attempts
Shot categoryFLATBL
Rebound11.1%9.5%
Close range17.4%18.7%
Long range24.0%25.9%
Other47.4%46.0%

Profiles frozen 2024-04-01; observations through 2024-03-31. A 50/50 blend of each attack's history and the opposing defense's conceded mix.

These are shot shares, not chance counts or win probabilities. Categories are exclusive: rebounds first, then close (within 25 feet and 45°), long (50+ feet), and other.

What the shot count hides: findings, methods and limits →

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