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2026-27 Preseason

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction (Oct 21, 2024)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning — Oct 21, 2024

Model last updated: Aug 26, 2026 09:31 AM PDT; data source: schedule_predictions.csv

Detailed NHL game prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning: pregame win probabilities, expected goals, and projected totals from our NHLForecasts model.

Explore more matchups on the NHL games calendar or full modeled schedule. See how this game impacts NHL playoff odds & Stanley Cup probabilities, or review team pages for longer-term edges on Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning.

Toronto Maple Leafs 54.5% Tampa Bay Lightning 45.5%
Pregame win probability

Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs 3.33 — Tampa Bay Lightning 2.97 • Median total: 6.0

Expected Goals Comparison

Toronto Maple Leafs
3.05
xG/game (Season)
Tampa Bay Lightning
3.56
xG/game (Season)
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