NHL Power Rankings: Week 4 (Oct 20, 2026)
Our NHL power rankings use model-derived strength ratings. Each team is rated by their predicted win probability against a league-average opponent on neutral ice—the same models that power our game predictions and playoff simulations.
Strength rating = average of P(win at home vs average) and P(win away vs average). Percentiles compare each category against the league.
Trend compares ranks to one week ago. Narratives are generated based on performance profile across offense, defense, goaltending, and recent form.
Top Movers (7 days)
Risers
- Minnesota Wild▲ 7
- Ottawa Senators▲ 5
- Florida Panthers▲ 4
- New York Islanders▲ 4
- Buffalo Sabres▲ 4
Fallers
- Vegas Golden Knights▼ 6
- Washington Capitals▼ 6
- Seattle Kraken▼ 5
- Calgary Flames▼ 4
- Toronto Maple Leafs▼ 4
Power Rankings (Model-Derived Strength)
| Rank | Δ | Team | Strength | Profile | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | — | New Jersey Devils A goaltending upgrade could change everything. Best at offense (81st percentile); weakest at defense (39th). | 70.8% | ODGF | 4-4 |
2 | — | Carolina Hurricanes Coaching staff pulling their hair out. Best at offense (100th percentile); weakest at goaltending (28th). | 68.1% | ODGF | 7-3 |
3 | — | Utah Mammoth Can beat you in multiple ways. Best at offense (97th percentile); weakest at goaltending (3rd). | 66.8% | ODGF | 7-3 |
4 | ▲ 4 | Florida Panthers Scoring depth is a strength. Best at offense (75th percentile); weakest at goaltending (38th). | 62.4% | ODGF | 5-4 |
5 | — | Tampa Bay Lightning Living and dying by the offense. Best at offense (94th percentile); weakest at defense (64th). | 61.1% | ODGF | 6-2 |
6 | ▼ 2 | Colorado Avalanche Elite defense anchoring a competitive team. Best at defense (91st percentile); weakest at offense (72nd). | 60.5% | ODGF | 5-4 |
7 | ▲ 4 | Pittsburgh Penguins Due for positive regression eventually. Best at offense (69th percentile); weakest at goaltending (12th). | 57.3% | ODGF | 3-7 |
8 | ▲ 1 | Montreal Canadiens Offensive upside keeps them competitive. Best at offense (88th percentile); weakest at defense (34th). | 57.1% | ODGF | 4-4 |
9 | ▲ 4 | Buffalo Sabres Giving up goals at an alarming rate. Best at offense (53rd percentile); weakest at defense (22nd). | 56.3% | ODGF | 4-5 |
10 | ▲ 2 | Los Angeles Kings Pain now for gain later, hopefully. Best at goaltending (62nd percentile); weakest at recent form (3rd). | 55.5% | ODGF | 0-6 |
11 | ▼ 4 | Dallas Stars Structure and discipline on display. Best at defense (84th percentile); weakest at offense (28th). | 55.3% | ODGF | 4-4 |
12 | ▼ 6 | Vegas Golden Knights Losing ground quickly. Best at defense (100th percentile); weakest at goaltending (81st). | 54.0% | ODGF | 8-2 |
13 | ▼ 3 | Boston Bruins Low-scoring affairs are their comfort zone. Best at defense (97th percentile); weakest at offense (25th). | 53.4% | ODGF | 7-2 |
14 | ▲ 1 | Detroit Red Wings Offensive upside keeps them competitive. Best at offense (78th percentile); weakest at recent form (22nd). | 52.7% | ODGF | 3-5 |
15 | ▼ 1 | St. Louis Blues Need more production up front. Best at goaltending (56th percentile); weakest at recent form (33rd). | 51.2% | ODGF | 3-5 |
16 | ▲ 4 | New York Islanders Struggling to score despite solid defense. Best at defense (75th percentile); weakest at offense (16th). | 50.1% | ODGF | 4-4 |
17 | ▲ 5 | Ottawa Senators On a tear lately. Best at recent form (72nd percentile); weakest at offense (47th). | 49.4% | ODGF | 6-3 |
18 | ▼ 2 | Columbus Blue Jackets Too easy to score against. Best at goaltending (78th percentile); weakest at offense (19th). | 48.1% | ODGF | 3-4 |
19 | — | New York Rangers Grinding out results the hard way. Best at goaltending (100th percentile); weakest at offense (66th). | 47.1% | ODGF | 7-3 |
20 | ▲ 7 | Minnesota Wild Climbing fast on recent form. Best at goaltending (97th percentile); weakest at defense (78th). | 46.3% | ODGF | 6-3 |
21 | ▼ 4 | Calgary Flames In a rut and can't get out. Best at offense (44th percentile); weakest at defense (3rd). | 45.9% | ODGF | 2-6 |
22 | ▲ 1 | Edmonton Oilers Suffocating opponents into defeats. Best at defense (94th percentile); weakest at goaltending (6th). | 45.2% | ODGF | 6-2 |
23 | ▲ 3 | Winnipeg Jets Offensive struggles defining the season. Best at recent form (53rd percentile); weakest at offense (31st). | 45.1% | ODGF | 4-4 |
24 | ▼ 6 | Washington Capitals Losing ground quickly. Best at goaltending (88th percentile); weakest at offense (62nd). | 45.1% | ODGF | 5-3 |
25 | ▼ 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs Maddening inconsistency defines this team. Best at offense (59th percentile); weakest at recent form (41st). | 45.1% | ODGF | 4-6 |
26 | ▲ 2 | Anaheim Ducks Just another team in the middle of the pack. Best at offense (56th percentile); weakest at goaltending (22nd). | 44.8% | ODGF | 4-4 |
27 | ▼ 3 | Nashville Predators A team searching for identity. Best at offense (50th percentile); weakest at goaltending (19th). | 44.2% | ODGF | 3-5 |
28 | ▲ 1 | San Jose Sharks Hard to win when you can't score. Best at recent form (25th percentile); weakest at goaltending (16th). | 44.1% | ODGF | 4-5 |
29 | ▲ 1 | Philadelphia Flyers Coaching staff pulling their hair out. Best at goaltending (75th percentile); weakest at offense (6th). | 40.3% | ODGF | 2-8 |
30 | ▼ 5 | Seattle Kraken Struggling to find answers. Best at recent form (62nd percentile); weakest at offense (34th). | 38.2% | ODGF | 5-4 |
31 | ▲ 1 | Chicago Blackhawks This season is already over. Best at goaltending (34th percentile); weakest at offense (9th). | 33.4% | ODGF | 3-6 |
32 | ▼ 1 | Vancouver Canucks Inconsistency is the only consistent thing. Best at defense (16th percentile); weakest at offense (3rd). | 31.5% | ODGF | 2-8 |
Profile dots — Offense · Defense · Goalie · Form — show percentile tier: elite ≥90 strong ≥70 avg ≥40 below ≥20 weak. Hover each dot for exact percentile.